Monday, April 27, 2009

The law of unintended consequences is a powerful thing. In the mid 1970's, the national speed limit was lowered from 70 to 55 to help stem a rising death rate on the nation's interstate highway system. Incredibly, the number of deaths increased over the next decade as drivers felt more safe and stopped wearing their seat belts.

In 2001, America attacked Afghanistan to end the terrorist threat against the United States by the Taliban. Today, a resurgent Taliban is marching into Pakistan and may be after that nation's nuclear arsenal.

And last year, the Nationals drew a line in the sand in their negotiations with their top draft pick Aaron Crow, and when the clock struck midnight, the Nationals failed to sign him over a couple of hundred thousand dollars.

No team has failed to sign their top draft pick two years in a row, which means the Nationals have to, they just have to, sign that number-one pick this June. The problem is, that pick also happens to be the top pick in the entire draft, which means that the Nationals are going to pick, and have to sign, Steven Strasburg, perhaps the best college pitcher of the modern era.

The Nationals face a daunting task-financial, emotional and historical-in trying to sign Strasburg. His agent is none other than Scott Boras, the man who will lie, cheat, steal, do whatever it takes to get his client a contract far above his value.

In other words, if the Nationals want to sign Strasburg, they are going to have to pay higher than his market value.

Much higher.

Is it worth it? Rather, is he worth it?

Well, yes, and no.

While some have suggested that it will take more than $50 million dollars to get a deal done, most feel that a major league contract over six years totalling $15-20 million should be about right.

Here then, are the top five reasons why the Nationals have to sign Steven Strasburg this summer, regardless of the cost:

1) The Nationals are desperately in need of some positive press. Though the team's 4-14 start this year isn't indicative of their talented roster, baseball writers across the country are making the team this year's big joke, and I'm talking Henny Youngman "Take my wife, please!"big joke.

The Lerner family, owners of the team, are considered cheap and unwilling to field a winning team. If they don't sign Strasburg, they (and the Nationals) will be written off as major league team with minor league players and Little League hopes.

2) Steven Strasburg is a great player. It's hard to imagine that the svelte, tall, muscular right-hander was a pudgy 92 mph high school pitcher, unrecruited in his Senior season. At San Diego State, however, he lost 30 pounds, was embarrassed by his lack of conditioning, asked to quit the team by the strength coach, and emerged from all of that with a 100 mph fastball and a curve ball that bends like Beckham.

He was a closer his first season with the Aztecs and has started the last two years. He was great as a closer. He's been unhittable as a starter.

In the last two seasons, Strasburg has a record of 17-3 (including 9-0 this year) with a 1.53 ERA. In 167 innings, he has allowed just 106 hits and 29 walks while striking out 268.

No, that's not a typo. Two-hundred-sixty-eight. That works out to roughly 16 strikeouts and under two walks per game.

Most scouts believe he'll be in the Nationals' rotation by August, and will be the number-one starter the day he first dons his "Curly W" cap.

Yeah, he's that good.

3) With Strasburg in the rotation, the Nationals might well contend in 2010. Jordan Zimmermann, a 22-year-old rookie from Wisconsin-Stevens Point, has won his first two games since arriving in Washington, and every scout who has seen him says he is a number-one starter. He leads all Nationals' starters with a 2.38 ERA. Add John Lannan (the team's best starter last year), Scott Olsen (600 Major League innings at age 25) and promising rookie Shairon Martis and the Nationals are capable of winning every day they play.

4) Baseball in Washington is at a precipice. In 1961, the Senators moved to Minnesota and became the Twins, while their replacement moved to Texas ten years later. Though the team's attendance in their first year in Washington was great, it has been declining since. The Nationals averaged more than 4,000 fewer fans per game in their first year at their new park in 2008 then in their first year in aging RFK in 2005. Their 29,0005 per game last year was 13th in the National League and they are averaging 20,000 in 2009.

Baseball in Washington will succeed but, as in other cities dominated by an NFL team, they have to win to draw big. The signing of Strasburg will create a buzz inside the Beltway and Strasburg could add as many as 15-20 wins to the team's yearly total for the next decade.

5) Major League players need to know that the Nationals are players for their services. Until Adam Dunn signed in February, the team had been rejected more often than a computer geek at prom time. Getting Dunn said something, as did the signing of reliever Joe Beimel a month later. Blow a billion or so on a kid from San Diego State and I can guarantee you-yes, guarantee-that the Nationals will sign one more impact player this winter and be ready to contend in 2010.

That's how it works; no one wants to be the first one on the dance floor and no baseball player wants to be the first to sign with a really bad team. They want a reason to sign.

Steven Strasburg would give them that reason, cover if you will.

As I write this, the Nationals hit five home runs in Philadelphia, had two different four-run leads, yet lost the game on grand slams by Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. But that's okay. Things are really looking up. The Nationals lineup, with Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns/Josh Willingham in the middle, is formidable. Their starting rotation, with Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan and Scott Oslen, is impressive.

But there are places, like the back end of the rotation and the entire bullpen, that need to be improved. One trade, one free agent signing, and Steven Strasburg in the rotation, and the Nationals will shed that laughing stock persona once and for all.

Really.

Granted, that's a lot of money to spend on a 20-year-old, but you have to remember, this is Washington we're talking about. If Barak Obama can spend $500 billion a month, the Lerner's can certainly come up with a paltry $15-20 million for a kid who can throw the ball 101 miles-per-hour.

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