Man, this is getting really ugly.
The 82nd game of the year is very special. It's the beginning of the second half of the season. Theoretically, anyway, teams can a set aside a dismal start and say, "From here on in, boys, it's going to be a different story."
The Nationals lost their 82nd game Wednesday afternoon 10-4 with another assortment of rumbling, bumbling, stumbling and tumbling.
The Nationals didn't start a new chapter. They didn't even turn a new page. Their just fleshing out the worst story ever written.
What's that you say? The '62 Mets was a worse team? Well, perhaps. But they were lovable. In fact, their unofficial nickname was the "lovable losers." Mets fans smiled as they got hammered night in and night out.
I'm not smiling, and I don't think you are either.
Look, I've been writing about the Nationals since their first winter in Washington, long before the players donned their "Curly W" caps. I have been so optimistic about the team's future that some readers have taken exception to my rose colored analysis. One commenter said I reminded him of that always-smiling guy on those Encite commercials.
But I've got to tell you, I'm beginning to wonder just exactly what's happening in Nats Town.
Manny Acta continues to trot out raw rookie Ross Detwiler every five days. And every five days, he gets squished like a bug on my windshield. Yes, I see the talent. Yes, I think that once Detwiler figures out his delivery release point, he's going to be a solid major league pitcher.
But he hasn't yet, and I've seen nothing that shows me he's beginning to figure it out.
In Syracuse, former first-round pick J. D. Martin is 8-2 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP (base runners allowed per inning). Garrett Mock is 4-2, 3.14, but has been near-perfect since he returned to the starting rotation.
Detwiler gives the Nationals no chance to win. Martin and Mock, while not as talented, are a better answer right now.
And boy, do I get a strong case of the shakes when I see Adam Dunn penciled in at first. Dunn is a tremendous power hitter who is terrible at first and almost adequate in left. He has proven time and time again that he doesn't have soft hands or quick feet, which means he isn't a first baseman.
Managers seem to think that slow-footed, power hitting left fielders can be hidden at first. Ted Williams tried it too. In 1968 and '69, Hondo played the equivalent of a full season at first base and committed an outrageous 21 errors. Dunn has played 136 games at first during his career and has made 19 errors.
Adam Dunn belongs in left or in the dugout. Nowhere else.
I could go on forever.
But lets not look backward. There is nothing we can do about the Nationals' 24-58 start. Let's look forward.
What can be done to keep the team from being forever named in the same breath with the aforementioned '62 Mets?
Not much.
Former general manager Jim Bowden had a vision. It wasn't a particularly good one, but at least he had an end game. He collected a bunch of outfielders that he was going to trade in spring, bolstering the relief corps and solidifying the middle infield. But he lost his job and Mike Rizzo took over before he could finish what he started.
Rizzo is going to be a great general manager, but he has a totally different view on how to build a major league baseball team. His moves-at least so far-just don't mesh with Bowden's.
So the Nationals went started the 2009 season with no hope of winning. The bullpen was too thin and the outfield was too thick, and as a result, both areas have underperformed.
All the Nationals can do is to rid themselves of the dead-wood relievers and begin the process of seeing who is, and isn't, ready in their minor league system.
The Nationals have been trying to showcase Austin Kearns and Ronnie Belliard in hopes of finding someone-anyone-who will take them in a trade. I'm afraid that come August 1st, they are going to go the way of Felipe Lopez and Paul LoDuca.
And then the team is going to have to do something that I know they have no intention of doing: fire Manny Acta.
For the last couple of months, several of the players have begun to sleepwalk through the season. Many have suggested that Cristian Guzman's 12 errors are because of declining skills. If that's the case, how do you explain Ryan Zimmerman's 12 errors or the six errors by both Anderson Hernandez and Alberto Gonzalez? Even slick-fielding Nick Johnson has make seven miscues.
Loss after loss after loss has been met with unbridled stoicism by Manny Acta. He's putting his players to sleep. They aren't paying attention. Picture trying to make a long throw to first with Kenny G playing in your head.
Zzzzzzz.
If the Nationals fire Acta and replace him with someone more bellicose, it would be like replacing Kenny G with Aerosmith.
They'd be alert, awake, and aggressive.
I think most of us can live with all the losses, but we can't stand to watch the team sleepwalk through the second half of the season. The Nationals have the talent to win 35 games between now and October, which would give them 59 wins for the season.
In other words, they would duplicate their poor performance from last year.
Wait. That's not a good thing.
But there is really nothing else to do but wait and see what happens. Mike Rizzo's vision of the Nationals is far different from the one Jim Bowden was building. Expect to see wholesale changes on the major league roster over the winter.
What will the team look like come Spring?
I have no idea.
Jesus Flores will be catching. Ryan Zimmerman will be at third. Adam Dunn will man left. John Lannan and Jordan Zimmermann will lead the starting pitching.
Other than that, it's a crapshoot. It's wait-and-see redux.
Now, you may have noticed that this column was written in a meandering style with no rhyme nor reason along with many errors. It was done on purpose.
This one time, I decided to write like the Nationals play.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Sunday, July 5, 2009
July is a telling month in the world of baseball. With the trade deadline coming at the end of the month, contending teams seek to shore up any potential weaknesses by dealing prospects for (usually) short term solutions.
A prime example came just last year, when the Milwaukee Brewers, who surprisingly found themselves in a pennant chase for the first time since the Reagan Administration, traded four of their prized prospects to the Cleveland Indians for star pitcher C. C. Sabathia, who led Milwaukee to the playoffs but became a free agent in the off-season and signed with the Yankees.
But in order for teams like the Yankees and Dodgers and Red Sox and Cardinals to improve in July, other teams have to get worse. Certainly, the Indians improved their future by trading for those Brewers' prospects, but they hurt themselves in the short term.
One need only look at this mornings standings to see that the Indians' 33-49 record is the worst in the American League and third worst in all of baseball.
Sometimes, these star-for-prospects trades do help the wobegone's of the league get better. In 2002, the Montreal Expos were in a pennant chase and desperately needed pitching. They traded for Cleveland all-star Bartolo Colon, who's 10-4, 2.55 effort did improve the club for the rest of the year. But who did they give up?
Oh, no one special. Just all-star Grady Sizemore (.268-33-90 last year), all-star Brandon Phillips (.261-21-78) and Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.54).
But for every steal, there is a dud. In 2006, the Nationals traded their best pitcher, Livan Hernandez, to the Arizona Diamondbacks for pitchers Matt Chico and Garrett Mock. After a promising but unspectacular rookie year in 2007 (7-9, 4.63), Chico underwent elbow surgery last season and is currently trying to make a comeback at 'AA' Harrisburg. Mock is a on-again off-again starter who was a reliever but is again a starter for the 'AAA' Syracuse Chiefs.
So with less than a month to go before the trade deadline, where does all this leave the Washington Nationals? Their 23-55 record is as bad as it gets, and while they aren't on a collision course with the 1962 Mets, it's going to be a near miss.
In an interview with Washington Post beat writer Chico Harlen yesterday, acting general manager Mike Rizzo said that he has "no plans" for a July fire sale. Uh-huh. That sounds a lot like Rudy Guliani last week when he said he had "no plans" to run for Governor.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the Nationals' position players most likely to draw interest from other teams this month:
1B: Nick Johnson (.295-5-34)
There is no way Johnson will be with the team come August 1st. His four-year contract ends this year and the team won't take another chance on their oft-injured first baseman. For his career, Johnson has been available for just 57% of his team's regular season games. He's a disaster waiting to happen. Again.
If that's not bad enough, there is little chance that the Nationals would receive a compensatory pick in next year's amateur draft if he's signed by another team. Their only viable option is to trade him now.
However, the Nationals have no one in the minor leagues who is even remotely close to being ready for the major leagues. Bill Rinehart ('AA' Harrisburg) and Chris Marrero ('A' Potomac) are both years away. Adam Dunn would be Johnson's likely successor, but he's even a worse defender at first than he is in the outfield.
If that's even possible.
SS: Cristian Guzman (.316-3-21)
In his first year with Washington (2005), Guzman didn't reach .200 until September and finished the year with a .260 on-base percentage. He missed the entire 2006 season with injury and played just 46 games in 2007. He came into his own last year, however, batting .316 with nine home runs.
Enter Jim Bowden. On the basis of one good year in four, he bestowed upon the 30-year-old a two-year, $16 million dollar contract, saying that the shortstop gave the Nationals a "home team discount" to sign.
Let me see. A career .273 hitter signs for $8 million a year at a discount but Adam Dunn, who just hit his 300th career home run, signed for $10 million a year.
Make sense? Didn't think so.
While Guzman is still hitting well (.316 entering Sunday's game against the Braves), his on-base percentage is down and is fast becoming a defensive liability. His fielding percentage in 2009 is the worst of his career and is a full ten-points lower than the league average.
Will anyone want an overpriced shortstop whose defensive skills are in decline? Probably, but what the Nationals might get in return wouldn't be much more than a mid-level prospect.
LF: Adam Dunn (.265-22-59)
In his first year with the Nationals, Dunn is on pace to hit .265-45-120 with a .403 on-base percentage. True, he's a liability in left (and I'm being kind here) but the city has a history of bad fielding, home run hitting left fielders who mesmerize the fans. Do you think Bob Short would have been able to leave Washington in one piece if he had traded Frank Howard?
No one in Nats Town would bat an eye if the Nationals were to trade Nick Johnson or Cristian Guzman this month. Both moves would make sense. But by trading Dunn-and there are many insiders who suggest this could happen-the Nationals would be throwing in the towel for not just this year but 2010 as well.
And that would be a bad move. The team's starting pitching has the potential to become an outstanding rotation as early as next season.
John Lannan has proven he's a solid major league starter. Jordan Zimmermann looks better every time he takes the mound. Scott Olsen's past production-and his first start since returning from the DL-shows that he has been and will again be a capable number three starter. By next spring, the Nationals should have-and I pray every night that it happens-Steven Strasburg in the rotation as well.
That means that the team only needs one success story from Shairon Martis, Ross Detwiler, Craig Stammen or Colin Balestar and they could have a very solid rotation.
If the Nationals keep Dunn, and add one more proven major league talent, 2010 just might be something special.
RF-Josh Willingham (.286-9-20)
Willingham, obtained from the Marlins for Emilo Bonifacio, should have been penciled into the lineup on opening day and left there. Instead, Manny Acta played a game of mix-n-match in the outfield, and Willingham suffered from a lack of playing time.
Once Austin Kearns and Elijah Dukes flamed out, however, Willingham began to play every day and his production blossomed. If he had played regularly all year, Willingham would be on pace to hit .286-30-80. Instead, he's rumored to be heading out of town.
Willingham is under team control for two more years. He's averaged 25 homers and 85 RBI over a 162 game season throughout his career. He's what the Nationals hoped Austin Kearns would be, though admittedly, his defense isn't spectacular.
And he's a solid clubhouse presence.
And yet he could be on the trade block because of Adam Dunn. The Nationals have two slow-footed power hitting outfielders on a team that can afford just one. So if Willingham gets traded, it's because his team screwed up, not him.
Willie Harris, Ronnie Belliard and one of the team's second-string catchers, either Josh Bard or Wil Nieves, are also trade possibilities, though none of them would bring the Nationals much more than organizational players.
In the coming days, the Nationals will make a statement to their fans. If they trade Nick Johnson or Cristian Guzman, they will say that they are making prudent, measured decisions for the long-term viability of their team.
If they trade Josh Willingham, they will be admitting that the team was doomed to fail because management rested the team's season on hope, prayer and a series of best-case scenarios that didn't pan out.
And if the Nationals trade Adam Dunn, they team will be acknowledging a distasteful similarity between them and the Soviet Union of the 1930's. Nationals fans, just like the citizens of Soviet Russia, will be forced to sit back and watch a succession of 5-year plans come and go, each wiping out the last, with little hope that anything concrete and positive will come from them.
July is usually for vacations at the beach, fishing in the mountains, and a day at the ball park. For the Washington Nationals, July will be for letting its fans know-once and for all-if they intend to become a major league baseball team.
I'm not sure I can watch.
A prime example came just last year, when the Milwaukee Brewers, who surprisingly found themselves in a pennant chase for the first time since the Reagan Administration, traded four of their prized prospects to the Cleveland Indians for star pitcher C. C. Sabathia, who led Milwaukee to the playoffs but became a free agent in the off-season and signed with the Yankees.
But in order for teams like the Yankees and Dodgers and Red Sox and Cardinals to improve in July, other teams have to get worse. Certainly, the Indians improved their future by trading for those Brewers' prospects, but they hurt themselves in the short term.
One need only look at this mornings standings to see that the Indians' 33-49 record is the worst in the American League and third worst in all of baseball.
Sometimes, these star-for-prospects trades do help the wobegone's of the league get better. In 2002, the Montreal Expos were in a pennant chase and desperately needed pitching. They traded for Cleveland all-star Bartolo Colon, who's 10-4, 2.55 effort did improve the club for the rest of the year. But who did they give up?
Oh, no one special. Just all-star Grady Sizemore (.268-33-90 last year), all-star Brandon Phillips (.261-21-78) and Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee (22-3, 2.54).
But for every steal, there is a dud. In 2006, the Nationals traded their best pitcher, Livan Hernandez, to the Arizona Diamondbacks for pitchers Matt Chico and Garrett Mock. After a promising but unspectacular rookie year in 2007 (7-9, 4.63), Chico underwent elbow surgery last season and is currently trying to make a comeback at 'AA' Harrisburg. Mock is a on-again off-again starter who was a reliever but is again a starter for the 'AAA' Syracuse Chiefs.
So with less than a month to go before the trade deadline, where does all this leave the Washington Nationals? Their 23-55 record is as bad as it gets, and while they aren't on a collision course with the 1962 Mets, it's going to be a near miss.
In an interview with Washington Post beat writer Chico Harlen yesterday, acting general manager Mike Rizzo said that he has "no plans" for a July fire sale. Uh-huh. That sounds a lot like Rudy Guliani last week when he said he had "no plans" to run for Governor.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the Nationals' position players most likely to draw interest from other teams this month:
1B: Nick Johnson (.295-5-34)
There is no way Johnson will be with the team come August 1st. His four-year contract ends this year and the team won't take another chance on their oft-injured first baseman. For his career, Johnson has been available for just 57% of his team's regular season games. He's a disaster waiting to happen. Again.
If that's not bad enough, there is little chance that the Nationals would receive a compensatory pick in next year's amateur draft if he's signed by another team. Their only viable option is to trade him now.
However, the Nationals have no one in the minor leagues who is even remotely close to being ready for the major leagues. Bill Rinehart ('AA' Harrisburg) and Chris Marrero ('A' Potomac) are both years away. Adam Dunn would be Johnson's likely successor, but he's even a worse defender at first than he is in the outfield.
If that's even possible.
SS: Cristian Guzman (.316-3-21)
In his first year with Washington (2005), Guzman didn't reach .200 until September and finished the year with a .260 on-base percentage. He missed the entire 2006 season with injury and played just 46 games in 2007. He came into his own last year, however, batting .316 with nine home runs.
Enter Jim Bowden. On the basis of one good year in four, he bestowed upon the 30-year-old a two-year, $16 million dollar contract, saying that the shortstop gave the Nationals a "home team discount" to sign.
Let me see. A career .273 hitter signs for $8 million a year at a discount but Adam Dunn, who just hit his 300th career home run, signed for $10 million a year.
Make sense? Didn't think so.
While Guzman is still hitting well (.316 entering Sunday's game against the Braves), his on-base percentage is down and is fast becoming a defensive liability. His fielding percentage in 2009 is the worst of his career and is a full ten-points lower than the league average.
Will anyone want an overpriced shortstop whose defensive skills are in decline? Probably, but what the Nationals might get in return wouldn't be much more than a mid-level prospect.
LF: Adam Dunn (.265-22-59)
In his first year with the Nationals, Dunn is on pace to hit .265-45-120 with a .403 on-base percentage. True, he's a liability in left (and I'm being kind here) but the city has a history of bad fielding, home run hitting left fielders who mesmerize the fans. Do you think Bob Short would have been able to leave Washington in one piece if he had traded Frank Howard?
No one in Nats Town would bat an eye if the Nationals were to trade Nick Johnson or Cristian Guzman this month. Both moves would make sense. But by trading Dunn-and there are many insiders who suggest this could happen-the Nationals would be throwing in the towel for not just this year but 2010 as well.
And that would be a bad move. The team's starting pitching has the potential to become an outstanding rotation as early as next season.
John Lannan has proven he's a solid major league starter. Jordan Zimmermann looks better every time he takes the mound. Scott Olsen's past production-and his first start since returning from the DL-shows that he has been and will again be a capable number three starter. By next spring, the Nationals should have-and I pray every night that it happens-Steven Strasburg in the rotation as well.
That means that the team only needs one success story from Shairon Martis, Ross Detwiler, Craig Stammen or Colin Balestar and they could have a very solid rotation.
If the Nationals keep Dunn, and add one more proven major league talent, 2010 just might be something special.
RF-Josh Willingham (.286-9-20)
Willingham, obtained from the Marlins for Emilo Bonifacio, should have been penciled into the lineup on opening day and left there. Instead, Manny Acta played a game of mix-n-match in the outfield, and Willingham suffered from a lack of playing time.
Once Austin Kearns and Elijah Dukes flamed out, however, Willingham began to play every day and his production blossomed. If he had played regularly all year, Willingham would be on pace to hit .286-30-80. Instead, he's rumored to be heading out of town.
Willingham is under team control for two more years. He's averaged 25 homers and 85 RBI over a 162 game season throughout his career. He's what the Nationals hoped Austin Kearns would be, though admittedly, his defense isn't spectacular.
And he's a solid clubhouse presence.
And yet he could be on the trade block because of Adam Dunn. The Nationals have two slow-footed power hitting outfielders on a team that can afford just one. So if Willingham gets traded, it's because his team screwed up, not him.
Willie Harris, Ronnie Belliard and one of the team's second-string catchers, either Josh Bard or Wil Nieves, are also trade possibilities, though none of them would bring the Nationals much more than organizational players.
In the coming days, the Nationals will make a statement to their fans. If they trade Nick Johnson or Cristian Guzman, they will say that they are making prudent, measured decisions for the long-term viability of their team.
If they trade Josh Willingham, they will be admitting that the team was doomed to fail because management rested the team's season on hope, prayer and a series of best-case scenarios that didn't pan out.
And if the Nationals trade Adam Dunn, they team will be acknowledging a distasteful similarity between them and the Soviet Union of the 1930's. Nationals fans, just like the citizens of Soviet Russia, will be forced to sit back and watch a succession of 5-year plans come and go, each wiping out the last, with little hope that anything concrete and positive will come from them.
July is usually for vacations at the beach, fishing in the mountains, and a day at the ball park. For the Washington Nationals, July will be for letting its fans know-once and for all-if they intend to become a major league baseball team.
I'm not sure I can watch.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Since the beginning of the season, I've been watching the Washington Nationals play a very unique brand of baseball. Most of us wrote off last year's 59-102 debacle as a perfect storm, a confluence of off-years, green pitching and bad luck.
I mean, there is no way that the Nationals would repeat last year's .366 winning percent in 2009, right?
Right.
Heading into Friday's game with Atlanta, the Nationals are on pace to win just 48 games, and are currently eight games ahead of Cleveland for the "honor" of securing the first pick in the MLB amateur draft for the second season in a row.
The Nationals are a much better team this year. Nick Johnson (.295-5-33) is healthy and outperforming the cabal of first baseman that the Nationals trotted out last season. Anderson Hernandez (.256-1-21) is playing far better than Felipe Lopez did a year ago. Cristian Guzman (.318-3-18) continues to provide strong offense at short and Ryan Zimmerman (.296-13-44) is making fans forget about his injury riddled off year in 2008.
Adam Dunn (.260-20-56) and Josh Willingham (.288-9-18) are marked improvements over Ryan Langerhans and Austin Kearns from last year. And the pre-slump Elijah Dukes and the currently over-achieving Willie Harris in center have made it so very easy to forget about the since-departed Lastings Milledge. Only catcher hasn't been upgraded, and that's only because of Jesus Flores' injury.
And while we can moan and groan about the bullpen, it was just as bad last year. In 2008, the starters that followed John Lannan were Tim Redding (10-11, 4.95), Odalis Perez (7-12, 4.34), Jason Bergman (2-11, 5.09) and Colin Balestar (3-7, 5.51). Jordan Zimmermann, Shairon Martis, Ross Detwiler and Craig Stammen, though all green, have all shown flashes of brilliance and have pitched no worse than last year's cadre of starters. And Scott Olsen, even with his injury problems, was an upgrade from 2008.
And while the defense is still bad, at least it's not the very worst in the National League like last year. Currently, it's just the second worst.
So why have the Nationals gotten worse? Why have they gone from being an embarrassment to a laughing stock?
A few years back, I was a car salesman for our local General Motors dealership. Over the previous four years, I had been the top salesman each year. The other salesman were all career guys and the dealership made a lot of money.
One day, the owner retired and his son took over the business. He forced out the old-time sales managers and brought in a bunch of young, high-pressure guys. The sales staff didn't trust the new leadership, and with good reason. They were the prototypical jerks you hate to deal with when you try to buy a new car.
Within six months, my sales declined from 15 a month to seven. The other salespeople had similar drops in sales. We would have morning meetings where we'd be excoriated by the managers, threatened with our jobs and made to feel totally worthless. Eventually, the owner got wise and "retired" his son, got rid of the high pressure and returned the dealership to its former ways.
And our sales doubled.
See, if those dirt-bags (and they were) had fired all of us and brought in dirt-bag salesman, they would have prospered. But we were low key, low pressure, and unable to work in the environment that was created.
That's the problem I see with the Nationals. The players have a low-pressure manager but require a high-octane personality to lead them. The team has an "AC" manager but the team runs on "DC" current.
In other words, they don't have a ying and a yang.
It's ying ying.
By this point, most Nationals' fans have grown weary of manager Manny Acta and many refuse to take the team seriously until a change is made.
And they're right, of course.
And the Lerners, and team president Stan Kasten, and sort-of-GM Mike Rizzo see in Acta a very intelligent, very able, very young manager who has all the makings of a winner.
And they're right too.
But as things currently stand, the Nationals are a Ford SUV held together with parts from a 1987 Yugo.
It's just not going to run properly.
So Stan and Mike and Mark and Ted have a decision to make. They can either get rid of Manny Acta bring in a manager with less stoicism and more vitriol and maybe they can mimic the Colorado Rockies for the rest of the season.
Or they can keep "Manager Manny" and turn over the roster, filling it with players whose pulse must be checked on a regular basis for signs of life.
You know: "Dude, we just got a walk-off homer. Cool. What's for dinner?"
It's one or the other.
So who's to blame? Why none other than Smiley Gonzalez.
If former general manager Jim Bowden had not been forced out during spring training because of "Smileygate," things would be very different right now. It was obvious that the Nationals were an unfinished product when spring training began. Bowden had collected six starting outfielders and was going to trade for starting pitching from a position of strength before the season started.
However, Bowden lost his job and the Nationals were only willing to give Mike Rizzo a soft endorsement as their sort-of, pseudo, for-the-time-being general manager. Rizzo didn't have the gravitas to make any dynamic trades, and because he had a differing view of how to build a team, was unwilling to continue build the team Bowden style.
As a result, the Nationals are a hodge-podge of mismatched parts.
Now don't get me wrong; I haven't retreated one inch from my "the future is bright for the Nationals" mindset. There is enough talent in the minor leagues to make a difference, though I wish it was a little farther along. The offense is good enough, and the starting pitching has the potential to be somewhere between special and stellar.
All Nationals' fans need do is show a little patience. If Mike Rizzo is bold and reshuffles the roster, or fires the coaching staff, then all is well on the S. S. National. No icebergs are in sight. There is enough talent to make a significant turnaround in 2010.
If, however, Rizzo becomes a seller and trades Nick Johnson, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham for prospects, well, that's a totally different story.
But I'm willing to wait until the July 31st trading deadline before throwing my fit.
Are you?
I mean, there is no way that the Nationals would repeat last year's .366 winning percent in 2009, right?
Right.
Heading into Friday's game with Atlanta, the Nationals are on pace to win just 48 games, and are currently eight games ahead of Cleveland for the "honor" of securing the first pick in the MLB amateur draft for the second season in a row.
The Nationals are a much better team this year. Nick Johnson (.295-5-33) is healthy and outperforming the cabal of first baseman that the Nationals trotted out last season. Anderson Hernandez (.256-1-21) is playing far better than Felipe Lopez did a year ago. Cristian Guzman (.318-3-18) continues to provide strong offense at short and Ryan Zimmerman (.296-13-44) is making fans forget about his injury riddled off year in 2008.
Adam Dunn (.260-20-56) and Josh Willingham (.288-9-18) are marked improvements over Ryan Langerhans and Austin Kearns from last year. And the pre-slump Elijah Dukes and the currently over-achieving Willie Harris in center have made it so very easy to forget about the since-departed Lastings Milledge. Only catcher hasn't been upgraded, and that's only because of Jesus Flores' injury.
And while we can moan and groan about the bullpen, it was just as bad last year. In 2008, the starters that followed John Lannan were Tim Redding (10-11, 4.95), Odalis Perez (7-12, 4.34), Jason Bergman (2-11, 5.09) and Colin Balestar (3-7, 5.51). Jordan Zimmermann, Shairon Martis, Ross Detwiler and Craig Stammen, though all green, have all shown flashes of brilliance and have pitched no worse than last year's cadre of starters. And Scott Olsen, even with his injury problems, was an upgrade from 2008.
And while the defense is still bad, at least it's not the very worst in the National League like last year. Currently, it's just the second worst.
So why have the Nationals gotten worse? Why have they gone from being an embarrassment to a laughing stock?
A few years back, I was a car salesman for our local General Motors dealership. Over the previous four years, I had been the top salesman each year. The other salesman were all career guys and the dealership made a lot of money.
One day, the owner retired and his son took over the business. He forced out the old-time sales managers and brought in a bunch of young, high-pressure guys. The sales staff didn't trust the new leadership, and with good reason. They were the prototypical jerks you hate to deal with when you try to buy a new car.
Within six months, my sales declined from 15 a month to seven. The other salespeople had similar drops in sales. We would have morning meetings where we'd be excoriated by the managers, threatened with our jobs and made to feel totally worthless. Eventually, the owner got wise and "retired" his son, got rid of the high pressure and returned the dealership to its former ways.
And our sales doubled.
See, if those dirt-bags (and they were) had fired all of us and brought in dirt-bag salesman, they would have prospered. But we were low key, low pressure, and unable to work in the environment that was created.
That's the problem I see with the Nationals. The players have a low-pressure manager but require a high-octane personality to lead them. The team has an "AC" manager but the team runs on "DC" current.
In other words, they don't have a ying and a yang.
It's ying ying.
By this point, most Nationals' fans have grown weary of manager Manny Acta and many refuse to take the team seriously until a change is made.
And they're right, of course.
And the Lerners, and team president Stan Kasten, and sort-of-GM Mike Rizzo see in Acta a very intelligent, very able, very young manager who has all the makings of a winner.
And they're right too.
But as things currently stand, the Nationals are a Ford SUV held together with parts from a 1987 Yugo.
It's just not going to run properly.
So Stan and Mike and Mark and Ted have a decision to make. They can either get rid of Manny Acta bring in a manager with less stoicism and more vitriol and maybe they can mimic the Colorado Rockies for the rest of the season.
Or they can keep "Manager Manny" and turn over the roster, filling it with players whose pulse must be checked on a regular basis for signs of life.
You know: "Dude, we just got a walk-off homer. Cool. What's for dinner?"
It's one or the other.
So who's to blame? Why none other than Smiley Gonzalez.
If former general manager Jim Bowden had not been forced out during spring training because of "Smileygate," things would be very different right now. It was obvious that the Nationals were an unfinished product when spring training began. Bowden had collected six starting outfielders and was going to trade for starting pitching from a position of strength before the season started.
However, Bowden lost his job and the Nationals were only willing to give Mike Rizzo a soft endorsement as their sort-of, pseudo, for-the-time-being general manager. Rizzo didn't have the gravitas to make any dynamic trades, and because he had a differing view of how to build a team, was unwilling to continue build the team Bowden style.
As a result, the Nationals are a hodge-podge of mismatched parts.
Now don't get me wrong; I haven't retreated one inch from my "the future is bright for the Nationals" mindset. There is enough talent in the minor leagues to make a difference, though I wish it was a little farther along. The offense is good enough, and the starting pitching has the potential to be somewhere between special and stellar.
All Nationals' fans need do is show a little patience. If Mike Rizzo is bold and reshuffles the roster, or fires the coaching staff, then all is well on the S. S. National. No icebergs are in sight. There is enough talent to make a significant turnaround in 2010.
If, however, Rizzo becomes a seller and trades Nick Johnson, Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham for prospects, well, that's a totally different story.
But I'm willing to wait until the July 31st trading deadline before throwing my fit.
Are you?
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