With their 6-3 win over the San Francisco Giants on Wednesday afternoon, the Washington Nationals return home with a still league-worst record of 11-21. That said, they finished their west-coast road trip at 4-4, and really, it should have been 6-2.
But I don't have to tell you about the Nationals' bullpen, right?
A couple of interesting themes are beginning to emerge now that the season is about one-fifth over. The bullpen could be the worst of baseball's modern era, and the starting pitching, though it started badly, is looking pretty good.
And oh, can the Washington Nationals hit.
How would you like to face this lineup?
SS-Cristian Guzman: .390-1-9
1B-Nick Johnson: .333-3-19
3B-Ryan Zimmerman: .357-8-26
LF-Adam Dunn: .313-11-28
CF-Elijah Dukes: .280-4-23
RF-Kearns/Willingham .220-8-22
C - Jesus Flores: .311-4-15
2B-Alberto Gonzalez: .271-1-5
The Nationals are fourth in the National League in runs (5.4 per game), third in home runs (42), walks (138), batting average (.280), on-base percent (.361), second in slugging percent (.447) and first in OPS (.809) and total bases (512).
In 2008, the Nationals' offense was a polar opposite, finishing dead last in total bases, OPS, slugging percent and home runs. They finished 14th in batting average and 11th in walks.
So Nationals' fans can look forward to several more years of a top-of-the-line offense, right?
Wrong.
Nick Johnson and Austin Kearns won't return in 2010, and in all probability, won't be in Washington after the July 31st trade deadline. Cristian Guzman and Adam Dunn are only signed through next year, and it's doubtful that either will resign with the Nationals as long as the team continues to lose this badly. Josh Willingham will be eligible for free agency after the 2011 season.
That leaves Ryan Zimmerman, Jesus Flores, Alberto Gonzalez and Elijah Dukes as the only starters who can be counted on long-term.
Sure, the Nationals might sign some of these players to multi-year deals in the next couple of years, but if attendance remains bad-the Nationals are currently 29th out of 30 teams-they might not have the money to lure their stars back even if they want to.
Sure, there are a few good prospects in the minor leagues, but most of them are pitchers. Justin Maxwell at 'AAA' Columbus, Chris Marrero and Michael Burgess at "A+" Potomac, and Derek Norris at "A-" Hagerstown are promising, but only one-Maxwell-is close to being major league ready.
My concern is that just as this potent offense deconstructs, that lousy pitching staff is going to become very, very good.
John Lannan (2-3, 3.89) is 24 and Shairon Martis (5-0, 3.98) is just 22, and both have shown that they will be quality starters for years to come. Jordan Zimmermann (2-1, 5.28) is 22 and has had three quality starts in his five major league games. He has struck out 26 and walked just 8 in 29 innings. Scott Olsen hasn't pitched well this year but is just 25 and has already started 100 games in the major leagues.
The Nationals also have several pitchers in their minor league system that look very good. Craig Stammen at Columbus (4-1, 1.85) and Ross Detwiler at Harrisburg (0-3, 2.96) look promising, and there are several others (Colten Willems, Josh Smoker, Cole Kimball) who are impressing as well.
Add Steven Strasburg, the presumptive number-one pick in the June amateur draft (11-0, 1.28, 17 strikeouts per 9 innings for San Diego State), and the Washington Nationals will soon have one of the strongest starting rotations in the National League.
The problem is that the starting pitching will get good about the same time that the offense returns to earth.
So instead of losing games 9-8, they'll lose them 3-2.
Unless of course, the Lerner family-owners of the Washington Nationals-take a deep breath, cross their fingers, and resign their core players next year.
If they do that, and if the rotation matures as expected, the Nationals will be a 90-win team by 2011. And if they can do something about that atrocious bullpen, they could reach .... dare I say it .... the World Series.
Of course, they need to get to .500 first, and that isn't happening anytime soon.
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Friday, May 8, 2009
Two things stood out in the Nationals' come from behind 11-9 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday night, and both of them were positive.
First, the Nationals plated 11 runs and meted out 18 hits against the first-place Dodgers. They now have a .275 team batting average (4th in the league), a .363 on-base percentage (2nd) and have drawn 125 walks (2nd). They are on pace to score in excess of 150 more runs in 2009 than last year.
Based on current stats, here are the projections for the Nationals' starting lineup over a full season:
1B-Nick Johnson: .330-12-66, .414 OBP, .430 SLG
2B-Anderson Hernandez: .328-0-48, .430 OBP, .403 SLG
SS-Cristian Guzman: .392-6-42, .392 OBP, .500 SLG
3B-Ryan Zimmerman: .336-30-120, .391 OBP, .560 SLG
LF-Adam Dunn: .290-42-138, .445 OBP, .559 SLG
CF-Elijah Dukes: .290-24-224, .370 OBP, .506 SLG
RF-Austin Kearns: .258-18-90, .410 OBP, .515 SLG
C - Jesus Flores: .301-18-78, .372 OBP, .494 SLG
Last year, the Nationals were dead-last in the National League with a .363 on-base percentage. This year, Dukes has the worst on-base percentage at .370 and their average OBP is a robust .403.
And with the exception of Adam Dunn, this is the same starting lineup that was the worst National League offense in 2008.
What's the difference? For the most part, the Nationals have remained healthy in 2009 after leading the major leagues in lost player days to injury last year. That, and the team also had the youngest starting lineup in the National League in 2008. Players like Anderson Hernandez, Jesus Flores, Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes are a year older and a year better.
The second bright spot coming out of Los Angeles was pitcher Jordan Zimmermann. Now, you'd think that a pitcher who gave up six runs in six innings while walking three and seeing his ERA jump from 4.24 to 5.48 would be hiding in the showers, unwilling to give an interview or read the morning papers.
But really, Zimmermann pitched two games against Los Angeles. In the first game, he gave up six runs while allowing four hits and two walks. In the second game, over five innings, the 22-year-old gave up just two hits and a walk.
Nationals' manager Manny Acta had nothing but superlatives to say about his young pitcher.
Confusing?
In the first inning, Zimmermann was overthrowing which made his change-up break so much that he couldn't locate it for strikes. He was forced to go with his fastball as his primary pitch.
In that first inning, Zimmermann struck out Rafael Furcal, walked Orlando Hudson on a 3-2 pitch, and then gave up a broken-bat flare to Andre Eithier that fell in a four-foot Bermuda Triangle in between Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Cristian Guzman. James Loney hit a solid single into center, and Russell Martin walked before Kemp slugged his grand slam.
The sixth run of the inning should have been unearned. Casey Blake hit a medium-deep fly ball to right center, but Elijah Dukes and Adam Dunn both pulled away at the last minute, allowing Blake to make it to third on what was ruled a triple but really was an error. Blake scored on a sacrifice fly.
And that was it.
Over the next five innings, Zimmermann was in total control, allowing just two hits and a walk, throwing 67% of his pitches for strikes.
Zimmermann showed the Nationals a great deal on Wednesday. For most young pitchers-heck, for most pitchers period-a 6-run first inning would have so unnerved them that they would have to be removed from the game quickly. But Zimmermann showed the Nats his bull dog tenacity, settling down and allowing the team the opportunity to at first get back in the game, and later to win it.
It doesn't much matter what Zimmermann's stats look like come September. He's already shown that he can dominate major league hitters, that he can win when he doesn't have his good stuff, and that he will keep battling regardless of score or situation.
Manager Manny Acta said last night that the Nationals are a couple of bullpen arms and a number-one starter away from contending for the playoffs.
I believe him.
Four of the team's five starters-John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Shairon Martis and Zimmermann-give the team the opportunity to win every night. If the Nationals trade one or two of their excess outfielders for veteran bullpen help, and if Steven Strasburg signs quickly and pitches up to his talent, the Nationals could (could) have a solid second half and reach the end of the season primed to contend in 2010.
Sure, all the planets have to align "just so" for it to happen, but the Nationals are that close to turning the corner.
Really.
First, the Nationals plated 11 runs and meted out 18 hits against the first-place Dodgers. They now have a .275 team batting average (4th in the league), a .363 on-base percentage (2nd) and have drawn 125 walks (2nd). They are on pace to score in excess of 150 more runs in 2009 than last year.
Based on current stats, here are the projections for the Nationals' starting lineup over a full season:
1B-Nick Johnson: .330-12-66, .414 OBP, .430 SLG
2B-Anderson Hernandez: .328-0-48, .430 OBP, .403 SLG
SS-Cristian Guzman: .392-6-42, .392 OBP, .500 SLG
3B-Ryan Zimmerman: .336-30-120, .391 OBP, .560 SLG
LF-Adam Dunn: .290-42-138, .445 OBP, .559 SLG
CF-Elijah Dukes: .290-24-224, .370 OBP, .506 SLG
RF-Austin Kearns: .258-18-90, .410 OBP, .515 SLG
C - Jesus Flores: .301-18-78, .372 OBP, .494 SLG
Last year, the Nationals were dead-last in the National League with a .363 on-base percentage. This year, Dukes has the worst on-base percentage at .370 and their average OBP is a robust .403.
And with the exception of Adam Dunn, this is the same starting lineup that was the worst National League offense in 2008.
What's the difference? For the most part, the Nationals have remained healthy in 2009 after leading the major leagues in lost player days to injury last year. That, and the team also had the youngest starting lineup in the National League in 2008. Players like Anderson Hernandez, Jesus Flores, Ryan Zimmerman and Elijah Dukes are a year older and a year better.
The second bright spot coming out of Los Angeles was pitcher Jordan Zimmermann. Now, you'd think that a pitcher who gave up six runs in six innings while walking three and seeing his ERA jump from 4.24 to 5.48 would be hiding in the showers, unwilling to give an interview or read the morning papers.
But really, Zimmermann pitched two games against Los Angeles. In the first game, he gave up six runs while allowing four hits and two walks. In the second game, over five innings, the 22-year-old gave up just two hits and a walk.
Nationals' manager Manny Acta had nothing but superlatives to say about his young pitcher.
Confusing?
In the first inning, Zimmermann was overthrowing which made his change-up break so much that he couldn't locate it for strikes. He was forced to go with his fastball as his primary pitch.
In that first inning, Zimmermann struck out Rafael Furcal, walked Orlando Hudson on a 3-2 pitch, and then gave up a broken-bat flare to Andre Eithier that fell in a four-foot Bermuda Triangle in between Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Cristian Guzman. James Loney hit a solid single into center, and Russell Martin walked before Kemp slugged his grand slam.
The sixth run of the inning should have been unearned. Casey Blake hit a medium-deep fly ball to right center, but Elijah Dukes and Adam Dunn both pulled away at the last minute, allowing Blake to make it to third on what was ruled a triple but really was an error. Blake scored on a sacrifice fly.
And that was it.
Over the next five innings, Zimmermann was in total control, allowing just two hits and a walk, throwing 67% of his pitches for strikes.
Zimmermann showed the Nationals a great deal on Wednesday. For most young pitchers-heck, for most pitchers period-a 6-run first inning would have so unnerved them that they would have to be removed from the game quickly. But Zimmermann showed the Nats his bull dog tenacity, settling down and allowing the team the opportunity to at first get back in the game, and later to win it.
It doesn't much matter what Zimmermann's stats look like come September. He's already shown that he can dominate major league hitters, that he can win when he doesn't have his good stuff, and that he will keep battling regardless of score or situation.
Manager Manny Acta said last night that the Nationals are a couple of bullpen arms and a number-one starter away from contending for the playoffs.
I believe him.
Four of the team's five starters-John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Shairon Martis and Zimmermann-give the team the opportunity to win every night. If the Nationals trade one or two of their excess outfielders for veteran bullpen help, and if Steven Strasburg signs quickly and pitches up to his talent, the Nationals could (could) have a solid second half and reach the end of the season primed to contend in 2010.
Sure, all the planets have to align "just so" for it to happen, but the Nationals are that close to turning the corner.
Really.
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