Last season, the Washington Nationals lost 102 games and their accompanying statistics bore that out. In 2008, they were 13th in runs per game, 15th in home runs and dead last in slugging percentage.

This year, the Washington Nationals seem to be on their way to losing 108 games, but this time, their statistics seem to make their bad start an aberration. After 20 games, the team is score a league-average 4.5 runs per game, is sixth in the league with 22 home runs and a .270 team batting average and are tied for second with 87 walks.

This is how the starting eight's statistics project for a full season (give or take, of course, because of the relatively small sample):

1B- Nick Johnson: .333-16-50
2B-Anderson Hernandez: .304-0-32
SS-Cristian Guzman: .474-0-32
3B-Ryan Zimmerman: .291-32-112
LF-Adam Dunn: .324-48-120
CF-Elijah Dukes: .292-24-104
RF-Austin Kearns: .240-24-88
C - Jesus Flores: .267-16-80

Other than the batting averages of Nick Johnson (.280 is more likely), Anderson Hernandez (he doesn't have a large enough major league sample to suggest he is that good a hitter), Cristian Guzman (he has only played in eight games) and Adam Dunn (he's a .250 hitter) every other projection looks spot-on.

This is why I have such high hopes for the Nationals this year. In 2008, the team didn't hit for average, didn't hit for power, and didn't walk enough. They led the league in grounding into double plays.

In other words, they earned their 59-102 record.

If projections hold, the 2009 Nationals are on pace to bat .270 with 178 home runs and score 750 runs. Using 2008 for comparison purposes, this team would have finished 3rd in the National League in batting average, 6th in home runs and 7th in runs scored.

Those numbers are most similar to the New York Mets (89 wins), the Houston Astros (86 wins) and the Milwaukee Brewers (90 wins.)

There is little doubt, then that the Nationals' offense is well above average, at least to this point in the season. Whether or not the team gets hot and can close in on a .500 record by season's end depends on the pitching staff.

Though the bullpen has been atrocious thus far, it has the talent already on the roster to be much better. The Nationals left some of their better relief pitchers off of the Opening Day roster because they had options remaining, keeping instead players who didn't have particularly good springs. A prime example was Jason Bergman, who did not allow a run in 11 innings but was optioned to Syracuse nonetheless.

The Nationals now have at least five relievers who are pitching well: Julian Taverez (3.12 ERA), Mike Hinckley (1.93), Joe Beimel (1.23), Jason Bergman (3.60) and Kip Wells (2.08). Yes, Bergman was sent down again, but he'll be back up soon. And Joe Beimel, without question the best reliever on the staff, is due to return from a non-throwing injury May 6th.

The remaining question mark is the starting rotation. All five starters-John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera, Jordan Zimmermann and Shairon Martis-have pitched well recently after getting pummeled early in the season, and things should get even better with the arrival of future number-one draft pick Steven Strasburg of San Diego State.

The current rotation will be okay this year, looking great one day and bad the next. But in the end, they will be a plus for the team overall.

Will the Nationals make it back to .500 in 2009? It's doubtful to be sure. But it's also doubtful-near impossible I'd venture-that the team loses 100+ games for the second season in a row.

The bullpen (hopefully) is fixed, and the starting pitching has vastly improved in the last two weeks, with the rotation throwing six quality starts (six innings pitched, three runs or less given up) in their last nine games.

If nothing untoward happens between now and the end of the season, the Nationals could very well win 73-75 games and be in a good position to contend in 2010, assuming they can sign one or two more quality free agents.

Sometimes, being 5-15 just isn't that bad.

The law of unintended consequences is a powerful thing. In the mid 1970's, the national speed limit was lowered from 70 to 55 to help stem a rising death rate on the nation's interstate highway system. Incredibly, the number of deaths increased over the next decade as drivers felt more safe and stopped wearing their seat belts.

In 2001, America attacked Afghanistan to end the terrorist threat against the United States by the Taliban. Today, a resurgent Taliban is marching into Pakistan and may be after that nation's nuclear arsenal.

And last year, the Nationals drew a line in the sand in their negotiations with their top draft pick Aaron Crow, and when the clock struck midnight, the Nationals failed to sign him over a couple of hundred thousand dollars.

No team has failed to sign their top draft pick two years in a row, which means the Nationals have to, they just have to, sign that number-one pick this June. The problem is, that pick also happens to be the top pick in the entire draft, which means that the Nationals are going to pick, and have to sign, Steven Strasburg, perhaps the best college pitcher of the modern era.

The Nationals face a daunting task-financial, emotional and historical-in trying to sign Strasburg. His agent is none other than Scott Boras, the man who will lie, cheat, steal, do whatever it takes to get his client a contract far above his value.

In other words, if the Nationals want to sign Strasburg, they are going to have to pay higher than his market value.

Much higher.

Is it worth it? Rather, is he worth it?

Well, yes, and no.

While some have suggested that it will take more than $50 million dollars to get a deal done, most feel that a major league contract over six years totalling $15-20 million should be about right.

Here then, are the top five reasons why the Nationals have to sign Steven Strasburg this summer, regardless of the cost:

1) The Nationals are desperately in need of some positive press. Though the team's 4-14 start this year isn't indicative of their talented roster, baseball writers across the country are making the team this year's big joke, and I'm talking Henny Youngman "Take my wife, please!"big joke.

The Lerner family, owners of the team, are considered cheap and unwilling to field a winning team. If they don't sign Strasburg, they (and the Nationals) will be written off as major league team with minor league players and Little League hopes.

2) Steven Strasburg is a great player. It's hard to imagine that the svelte, tall, muscular right-hander was a pudgy 92 mph high school pitcher, unrecruited in his Senior season. At San Diego State, however, he lost 30 pounds, was embarrassed by his lack of conditioning, asked to quit the team by the strength coach, and emerged from all of that with a 100 mph fastball and a curve ball that bends like Beckham.

He was a closer his first season with the Aztecs and has started the last two years. He was great as a closer. He's been unhittable as a starter.

In the last two seasons, Strasburg has a record of 17-3 (including 9-0 this year) with a 1.53 ERA. In 167 innings, he has allowed just 106 hits and 29 walks while striking out 268.

No, that's not a typo. Two-hundred-sixty-eight. That works out to roughly 16 strikeouts and under two walks per game.

Most scouts believe he'll be in the Nationals' rotation by August, and will be the number-one starter the day he first dons his "Curly W" cap.

Yeah, he's that good.

3) With Strasburg in the rotation, the Nationals might well contend in 2010. Jordan Zimmermann, a 22-year-old rookie from Wisconsin-Stevens Point, has won his first two games since arriving in Washington, and every scout who has seen him says he is a number-one starter. He leads all Nationals' starters with a 2.38 ERA. Add John Lannan (the team's best starter last year), Scott Olsen (600 Major League innings at age 25) and promising rookie Shairon Martis and the Nationals are capable of winning every day they play.

4) Baseball in Washington is at a precipice. In 1961, the Senators moved to Minnesota and became the Twins, while their replacement moved to Texas ten years later. Though the team's attendance in their first year in Washington was great, it has been declining since. The Nationals averaged more than 4,000 fewer fans per game in their first year at their new park in 2008 then in their first year in aging RFK in 2005. Their 29,0005 per game last year was 13th in the National League and they are averaging 20,000 in 2009.

Baseball in Washington will succeed but, as in other cities dominated by an NFL team, they have to win to draw big. The signing of Strasburg will create a buzz inside the Beltway and Strasburg could add as many as 15-20 wins to the team's yearly total for the next decade.

5) Major League players need to know that the Nationals are players for their services. Until Adam Dunn signed in February, the team had been rejected more often than a computer geek at prom time. Getting Dunn said something, as did the signing of reliever Joe Beimel a month later. Blow a billion or so on a kid from San Diego State and I can guarantee you-yes, guarantee-that the Nationals will sign one more impact player this winter and be ready to contend in 2010.

That's how it works; no one wants to be the first one on the dance floor and no baseball player wants to be the first to sign with a really bad team. They want a reason to sign.

Steven Strasburg would give them that reason, cover if you will.

As I write this, the Nationals hit five home runs in Philadelphia, had two different four-run leads, yet lost the game on grand slams by Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez. But that's okay. Things are really looking up. The Nationals lineup, with Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Austin Kearns/Josh Willingham in the middle, is formidable. Their starting rotation, with Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan and Scott Oslen, is impressive.

But there are places, like the back end of the rotation and the entire bullpen, that need to be improved. One trade, one free agent signing, and Steven Strasburg in the rotation, and the Nationals will shed that laughing stock persona once and for all.

Really.

Granted, that's a lot of money to spend on a 20-year-old, but you have to remember, this is Washington we're talking about. If Barak Obama can spend $500 billion a month, the Lerner's can certainly come up with a paltry $15-20 million for a kid who can throw the ball 101 miles-per-hour.

For the Washington Nationals, first base is a two-part question. First, what in the world are they going to do next year, and second, what in the world is going on this year?

Nick Johnson was the team's starting first baseman long before the Expos moved to Washington in 2004. But since first donning the "Curly W," he has been available for just 48% of his team's games, missing all of 2007 and 120 games last year. His four year contract is up this year, and his age (31) and frequent injuries make it a near-certainty that he won't be resigned this off-season. Because he won't bring a compensation pick as a free agent, he'll likely be traded before the July 31st trade deadline.

The Nationals have two players in their Minor League pipeline who could eventually take over first base, but neither of them are close to being ready. Twenty-three year old Bill Rhinehart, an 11th round pick in 2007, has looked good thus far, batting .278-23-132 in 719 at-bats. However, he's started slowly for Harrisburg, batting just .139 in limited play.

Chris Marrero is the heir apparent, but after one good season two years ago, he fractured his ankle early in 2008 and missed the second half of the season. He returned this spring in the best shape of his career, and he's hitting well for Potomac, but he's only 19 and it will be at least two more years, maybe three, before he's ready to take on major league pitching.

Adam Dunn can play first-that was my choice heading into Opening Day-but his defensive liabilities were exposed during the World Baseball Classic in March.

No, he needs to stay in the outfield.

The other surprise is not that he's still healthy (that's not a surprise, it's a miracle) but rather the way Nick Johnson is playing. As the cleanup hitter in 2005 and 2006, Johnson swung for power, hitting 23 homers in 2006. But this year, things are different.

Johnson has been placed in the number-two hole in the lineup and has been asked to get on base for Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn and Elijah Dukes. The change in his numbers are staggering.

He has 19 hits in 50 at-bats this year (.380) but just two of those hits are for extra bases, both doubles. In a full season (500 at-bats), Johnson would have 180 hits, 20 doubles and no home runs. Compare that to 2006 (46 doubles, 23 homers) and it's obvious that Johnson has changed his hitting style for the good of the team.

Instead of pulling the ball down the first base line, and hitting line drives into the right field gap, Johnson is poking soft line drives over the shortstop's head. He's also walking less, though his on-base percent of .446 is still amazing. Johnson has walked in 18% of his at-bats during his career, but just 10% in 2009.

That's what makes Johnson such a great talent. He is able to do what the team needs. He can hit for power, he can take a walk, and he can be a singles hitter.

And while his defense is not Gold Glove quality, it's very, very close.

It's sad that the Nationals are going to have to give up on him, but past history demands it. That said, Mike Rizzo gave up on Shawn Hill earlier this spring, and he's currently playing very well for the San Diego Padres. In two starts and ten innings, Hill is 1-0 for San Diego with a 3.60 ERA, striking out six while walking just two.

So you never know.

The future for the Nationals is bright, though first base remains muddled. Perhaps if Nick remains healthy all year, the team might offer him an incentive-laden deal to return in 2010. All I know is that there is likely a hole at first for the next two or three years, and it would be great if Nick Johnson was healthy enough to fill it.

In one of his first media interviews back in 2004, then General Manager Jim Bowden made it very clear that first priority-his only priority really-was to stock the Nationals' barren farm system with pitching talent. "You develop pitchers," Bowden said, "and you find the bats through trades and free agency."

And so we watched as all those unknown names with a "P" next to their name were taken in the amateur draft in 2005, and 2006, and 2007, and we happily waited for them to mature from minor league prospect into a major league pitcher.

And we waited.

In 2005, Marco Estrada was taken in the 6th round, Jack Spradlin in the 8th, and John Lannan in the 11th. Craig Stammen came one round later. In 2006, the Nationals added Colten Willems in the 1st round, Cory Van Allen in the 5th, Cole Kimball in the 12th and Hassan Pena in the 13th. Ross Detwiler (1st), Josh Smoker (1st), Jordan Zimmermann (2nd), Jack McGeary (6th) and Adrian Alaniz (12th) came in 2007.

And still we waited.

Um .... excuse me, Jimbo, how long does it take to develop major league pitchers?

Among those players, perhaps a half dozen were expected to blossom into capable big leaguers, almost none of them have shown that they might pitch in the major leagues one day.

The answer is, then, that it takes a very long time to develop a major league pitcher. For the Nationals, from those thirteen respected minor league prospects, one player-John Lannan-has successfully made the transition to the major leagues.

And Lannan was an 11th round pick. Ross Detwiler, the much heralded first round selection in 2007, who was supposed to already be in the Nationals' rotation, had a rough year at Potomac (A) last year and isn't looking much better at Harrisburg (AA) in 2009.

An 11th round pick succeeds where a first rounder struggles.

Go figure.

To this point, I don't think any of us knew exactly what a "real" pitching prospect looked like and therefore didn't know what to expect. Was Detwiler making satisfactory progress? Who knew?

That is, until Jordan Zimmermann entered the scene. Zimmermann, as a second round pick, came from a cold weather state (Wisconsin) and a Division III college (Wisconsin Stevens-Point).

He was a total unknown.

Lannan's rise to the major leagues was meteoric. In less than three minor league seasons, Lannan compiled a 21-16, 3.89 record, very good for the minors. Well, if that was meteoric, then Jordan Zimmermann got to the majors at warp 8.

Zimmermann, in less than two full seasons in the minors, compiled a record of 15-5, 2.74 with a tremendous WHIP (base runners allowed per inning) of 1.17. By way of comparison, Roger Clemens had the same 1.17 WHIP over his major league career.

In other words, that's pretty good.

Clemens spent parts of two seasons in the minors before joining the Red Sox. Jake Peavy joined the Padres in less than three years, the same as Greg Maddux. Tom Glavine arrived after two years.

The point I'm making is that while many all-star hitters remain in the minors for four or five years, the star pitchers tend to land in the majors much faster. The average time spent in the minors for the last eight National League ERA leaders is 2.7 years. Further, when they get there, they tend to stay there.

How good is Jordan Zimmermann? It's hard to say after just one game, but Washington Post sportswriter Dave Sheinin talked to a scout who watched Zimmermann pitch against the Braves on Tuesday. Sheinin said that this particular scout is usually conservative in his opinion, which makes his opinion even more impressive:

"I really like him. Everybody talks about his velocity, but I like the potential for both of his breaking balls. His slider is very good. Once he finds his true velocity, I think he'll eventually pitch at 92 [mph] with two very good breaking balls. His change up is his worst pitch, but he has the potential to be a true four-pitch pitcher.

"I had him topped out at 95, but he was really comfortable at 92, 93, and I think that's where he's going to settle in. The one thing that bothers me in his delivery is [that] he flies open a little bit. And his command in the strike zone -- he throws a lot of strikes, but they weren't all necessarily quality strikes. He was getting hit hardest on his fastballs. His fastball command was a little less consistent than I'm sure he would've liked.

"I think he's going to be a solid rotation guy -- or maybe better than that. He has the potential to be a [number] 1 or 2. If I had to pencil him right now, I'd call him a 2. But I tell you, if they draft [Stephen] Strasburg and get him signed, and if this kid [Zimmermann] does what he's supposed to do, that's a hell of a back-to-back. If they come up with a third pitcher, they're the Florida Marlins. They could really have something here."

That last paragraph is most telling. If Zimmermann is "as advertised," and the Nationals' sign Steven Strasburg as anticipated, the Nationals could have-as quickly as 2010-two number-one starters in their rotation. John Lannan would then become the number-three starter, which is what most scouts believe he is. Add Scott Olsen and Shairon Martis and the Nationals could have a formidable rotation, and sooner rather than later.

The Nationals' starters had a 13.20 ERA in their first starts this season, and a 4.84 ERA the second time through the rotation. The third time was the charm, as the starters-including Zimmermann-posted a 2.67 ERA.

It's vogue to scoff at the Washington Nationals these days, and it drives me crazy because these so-called experts are basing their opinions on that 1-10 start and not the reason for the start or the true ability of the team.

I think the Nationals will make up for that horrid start over the course of the year and still think they can reach 75 wins if they can avoid another long losing streak.

And if Steven Strasburg is the real deal? Then it just might be a very special year.

Well, well; take a couple of weeks off and look what happens to the Washington Nationals.

I hope they don't expect me to clean up the mess.

Two weeks into the season and the Washington Nationals are in last place in the National League East. That's not unexpected. Their record is 2-10.

That's crazy.

But wait: before we write the team off as a "laughing stock" as so many national journalists and anchors have, let's look a little deeper into all those statistics that make up a major league baseball team.

Of those ten losses, six were by two runs or less, three by one run. Three losses were in extra innings and three came as the result of blown saves. The Nationals-with just a little luck-could have a .500 record.

And to blame the offense for their bad start would be a canard. The woeful offense from last year has been replaced by a very competent-perhaps above average-group who still haven't hit their stride in 2009.

To wit: The Nationals are currently 5th in the league in batting average (.269), 3rd in walks (56), 5th in hits (115), 7th in stolen bases (6), and 5th in on-base percent (.385). They are a little lacking in runs scored (9th), home runs (12th) and slugging percent (9th), but the power will come. By the end of the year, I expect four or five players will have 25+ home runs.

The pitching, of course, is another matter, but even that isn't really a concern at this point. While there is no question that all four starters got pounded in their first game-and a couple in their second-John Lannan, Scott Olsen, Daniel Cabrera and Shairon Martis have looked good recently.

John Lannan got clobbered in his first two games, but returned to form April 17th against the Marlins, allowing just one run, three hits and a walk in 6.1 innings (1.50 ERA) while striking out eight and throwing 65% of his pitches for strikes. Scott Olsen, also clobbered in his first two games, went seven innings against the Marlins his last time out, giving up two runs on six hits (2.57 ERA) and a walk while striking out five. He threw 103 pitches, 72% of them for strikes.

Daniel Cabrera has pitched well his last two games, but I guess I'm saying he pitched well for Daniel Cabrera. In those two starts, against the Phillies and Marlins, Cabrera pitched 10 innings, giving up just three earned runs (2.29 ERA), allowing nine hits. But his problems with the Orioles have followed him down the parkway. In those 10 innings, Cabrera walked six and struck out just two, an indication that his 98+ mph fastball is still missing in action. In addition, just 52% of his pitches were strikes.

Shairon Martis' last game, against the Phillies, was very good. In 6.1 innings, he allowed two runs and a two walks (3.60 ERA) while striking out one. Though he threw only 54% of his pitches for strikes, he had good command of his pitches when needed.

Last night, young Jordan Zimmermann braved the rain and his nerves and pitched brilliantly against the Braves, allowing just two runs (and he was one strike away from allowing none) in six innings (3.00 ERA). He struck out three and walked one, and threw an impressive 70% of his pitches for strikes.

Add up those last six starts, and even the Nationals' naysayers have to be impressed. In 36 innings, the starters have given up 31 hits and 12 walks while striking out 18. Over that span, their ERA is a very impressive 2.75.

The bullpen was perhaps the main culprit of the team's 2-10 start, but that really was the fault of acting general manager Mike Rizzo. He sent down Garrett Mock and Jason Bergman-two of their best relievers during the spring-because they had options and kept Steven Schell and Will Ledezma because they didn't.

Mock and Bergman should stabilize the bullpen, but I'm still not sold on Joel Hanrahan as the closer. He only converted 75% of his save opportunities last year and is just one out of four in 2009.

He has the talent. Does he have the mettle? Time will tell.

The offense is clicking, and the starting pitching seems to have righted itself. The bullpen has been revamped and seems capable. The only problem that helped cause that 2-10 start that hasn't been fixed is the defense, which is first in the league in errors (13) and last in fielding percent (.972).

But even that cloud isn't as dark as it seems.

Six of those 13 errors were committed by reserves or players starting because of injury. Only Ryan Zimmerman's three miscues looks out of line, but really, do any of us really think he'll finish the year with more than 12-13 errors?

Sure, this start hurts, but by September, the bad start will have been all but forgotten, and the Nationals will look like a sleeper team in 2010.

Really.